u/slickvic33 wrote (the comment Michael replied to):
Seems like we can expect new data to come in late feb. Anyways at this point we know the data will be ass, the question is how ass? I’d expect around 50-60 percent for Codesmith and like 30 perc for everyone else
u/michaelnovati replied · ★ FEATURED
I think the 12 month placement might be higher than 60% but we'll see. We know placements have been a lot slower, but it's hard to tell whose getting the jobs.
If I had more time or cared about this more I repeat my 52 person audit and cross reference their cohorts from some other data. Part of the reason the average time on OSPs was 12 months was becasue people tended to be job hunting longer and just had like June 2022 - present, listed for their OSP. But when you do all the accounting I don't have a strong sense of where this lands but I highly suspect 6 month placements rates of 50 to 60% are reasonable.
My nightmare that everyone should prepare for is if CIRR comes out and Codesmith has a 12 month placement of 78% or something, and touts that as not much different than the H1 2022 SIX MONTH rate of 83% (or whatever it is close to that) then I think that would be bad.